When you get down to it, not everyone is as laser-focused on making money as they say they are. “There are people whose primary goal is to be right. That works a high percentage of the time, but it can be disastrous because your ego and portfolio get caught up in that goal instead of just making money,” Duncan says.

“At any one time, there are only 100 people in the world whose map of reality on a complex subject—AI, global politics, interest-rate policy—is extremely accurate,” Duncan says. These individuals see the field clearly because of where they sit, but also because the field itself fascinates and absorbs them. This passion, Duncan explains, causes them... See more

Another thing that Duncan is always trying to figure out is whether someone has truly stepped into their own, or if they’re still working within ‘somebody else’s frame’.

He regularly put a couple of dozen up-and-coming hedge-fund managers around a table and had them pitch ideas. It wasn’t just about the ideas in these situations, but observing which way the table leaned. “If you have a group of 20 people together, the room kind of knows where the pockets of quality are most of the time. And you can see this if you... See more