long-term thinking
musings on long-term thinking in a shortsighted world. we overestimate what we can do in a year, underestimate what we can do in 10 kinda thing.
Juan Orbea and
long-term thinking
It took 4.5 years and ~$1bn raised for OpenAI to launch GPT-3, which was their first PMF product.
That breaks every “rule” in the startup world, around mvp and being capital light pre-pmf.
Goes to show you that you have to define your own rules to get outsized success.
immadtwitter.comForethought Foundation
forethought.org
Working Backwards: Insights, Stories, and Secrets from Inside Amazon
Bill Carr • 10 highlights
amazon.comThousands of people will want to start a Substack or podcast. Something like 1% of them or less will stick with it consistently for 2+ years. If you commit to things for 10+ years, you develop what appear to be superpowers
Indeed the Oak tree King of Limbs, in Britain is over 1,000 years old. It has been growing quietly in place since before the Norman Conquest. The King doesn’t much care about one iPhone model to the next.
Millennia long scales of engagement with the world around us are almost unimaginable when contrasted with the 2 week long Agile sprints popular... See more
Millennia long scales of engagement with the world around us are almost unimaginable when contrasted with the 2 week long Agile sprints popular... See more
Jeff Bezos says that if Amazon has a good quarter it’s because of work they did 3, 4, 5 years ago—not because they did a good job that quarter
SAM H INKIE 3 6 0 1 S O U T H B R O A D S T R E E T
As humans, we're evolutionarily wired to prioritize short-term gain. Hunter gatherers had no use for five-year plans, and those instincts are still within us. Combine that with our current economic system, ad-driven business models, and algorithmic social media platforms, all of which visibly reward cynical short-term games, and you've got the... See more