long-term thinking
musings on long-term thinking in a shortsighted world. we overestimate what we can do in a year, underestimate what we can do in 10 kinda thing.
Juan Orbea and
long-term thinking
The Centre For the Study of Existential Risk
cser.ac.uk
Thousands of people will want to start a Substack or podcast. Something like 1% of them or less will stick with it consistently for 2+ years. If you commit to things for 10+ years, you develop what appear to be superpowers
MrBeast subscriber growth:
2012: 22 subscribers
2013: 612 subscribers
2014: 1,604 subscribers
2015: 15,429 subscribers
2016: 100,000 subscribers
2017: 1 million subscribers
2018: 10 million subscribers
2019: 28.4... See more
World of Statisticsx.com
This a very interesting read on long-lived institutions. A few facts: most of the oldest companies in the world are in Japan. 90% of the companies that are over 200 years old have 300 employees or less, they’re not mega companies
Our ideal outcome as a company is not becoming the next Facebook (god forbid), it’s becoming the next Nishiyama Onsen Keiunkan, a hot spring hotel in Japan, and one of the world’s oldest businesses (founded in 705 AD).