Impact of AI

This is how the singularity goes: wonders become routine, and then table stakes.

The cost of GPT4 quality results has declined by more than 99% in the last two years. GPT-4 launched in March 2023 at $36 per million tokens. Today, China’s DeepSeek offers similar performance for $0.14, or 250 times cheaper

There is a lot of talk that AI is going to be able to do everything that humans can, better, and soon. That there will be nothing left for us to do. That is not how this works. This is a strategy memo for humans. https://t.co/kJXhfd9hbE

A 2017 McKinsey Global Institute report said 75 million to 375 million workers may need to switch their occupations by 2030 as “digitization, automation and artificial intelligence” disrupt the way we work. In the same report, 62% of executives said they believe they will need to retrain or replace more than a quarter of their workforce by 2023.

We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.

We are... See more