gambling culture

Hype compounds when many orgs farm their own “evidence.” Plant a trend name, seed it through press connections, then point to the growing mentions of it as proof of accuracy. But this is information laundering – astroturfing. It’s anything but a “prediction.” (No, you were not ahead of the “pickle girl summer aesthetic” trend. You just forced it... See more

prediction markets aggregate a very particular kind of participant – informed, motivated individuals willing to put money behind their expectations. Skin in the game produces a sharper signal than surveys or passive listening. People lie in surveys. They bet cash when they mean it.

Prediction markets were once a fringe obsession of economists and election wonks, but in the past year or so, they’ve gone from obscure to everywhere. The industry is booming thanks to a combination of marketing, distrust in traditional sources of information and a newly friendly regulatory environment. Late last year, Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket,... See more

The wisdom-of-crowds argument presupposes that the masses possess some recondite knowledge that can be unlocked by allowing individuals to express themselves as part of an anonymous mob. Kalshi’s management dresses this argument up as “democratizing finance through innovation. ... Imagine transforming your insights and predictions about the future... See more

“Kalshi is replacing debate, subjectivity, and talk with markets, accuracy, and truth,”

News and sports-betting firms have lined up for a piece of the action. In December, Kalshi signed a deal with CNN giving the cable news channel access to its betting data and providing for a “Kalshi-powered real time news ticker” that will run on the CNN screen Kalshi also reached a deal to become the National Hockey League’s “official prediction... See more

a shared belief that prediction markets' "wisdom of the crowd" ethos can illuminate truths faster and more accurately than media, polls and other traditional institutions.

New technologies open up new avenues to earn an income (with often unbounded upside). New cultural shifts make people want to pursue these avenues for wealth creation, often at the expense of “old school” work. These forces are creating the biggest shocks to labor and capital that we’ll see in our lifetimes.

We see a younger generation eschewing traditional careers in lieu of more unpredictable work with higher potential upside. The risk-return calculus has shifted. A number of startups underpin these new forms of work. The first iteration, of course, was the creator economy: remember the stats around 60%+ kids wanting to be influencers? We saw... See more