futurism & foresight

“The future’s already arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” The leading-edge line of an emerging S curve is like a string hanging down from the future, and the odd event you can’t get out of your mind could be a weak signal of a distant industry-disrupting S curve just starting to gain momentum.

As futurist Roy Amara pointed out to me three decades ago, there is a tendency to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term.

William Gibson’s observation “The future is already here—it’s just not very evenly distributed.