AI will not take over the world...

We’re not even on the agency curve. It’s a different curve.

Look, I’m using knowledge and agency a little loosely. LLMs can do more than just regurgitate knowledge; even if you grant them reasoning, though, it still doesn’t feel like humanity emerges from LLM scaleup. They have no curiosity, and don’t ask their own questions.

Seven years ago, Kevin Kelly wrote, “Intelligence is not a single dimension, so ‘smarter than humans’ is a meaningless concept.” It bears repeating.

there is a third way, the Goldilocks Zone : we get increasingly smart and capable helpers without eliminating the need for humans, or birthing beings that have any desire to eliminate humans.

That is the implication of agreeing with Leopold’s curve but disagreeing with the mapping. It’s what you get when you believe in straight lines on a graph wit... See more

A very common trope is to treat LLMs as if they were intelligent agents going out in the world and doing things. That’s just a category mistake. A much better way of thinking about them is as a technology that allows humans to access information from many other humans and use that information to make decisions. We have been doing this for as long a... See more

language models are not intelligent in the ways that even small children are intelligent, but they are already superhuman at tasks like summarization, translation (both linguistic and conceptual), and association. And when you apply those skills to artfully curated source material written by equally, but differently, gifted humans, magic can happen... See more

GPT-4 is a Smart High Schooler on one dimension, and a bottom centile High Schooler on others. It’s dangerous to assume that strengthening the strong dimension will strengthen the others. No A+ physics student ever became the star quarterback by becoming an A++ physics student.