“You’re essentially indirectly competing against the smartest, most informationally savvy groups in the world.”
“You’re essentially indirectly competing against the smartest, most informationally savvy groups in the world.”
[T]hey identified a small group of the foxiest forecasters—bright people with extremely wide-ranging interests and unusually expansive reading habits, but no particular relevant background—and weighted team forecasts toward their predictions. They destroyed the competition. […] They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top f... See more
Patrick Tanguay • Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
I came to realize that prediction in the era of Big Data was not going very well.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
If you have strong analytical skills that might be applicable in a number of disciplines, it is very much worth considering the strength of the competition. It is often possible to make a profit by being pretty good at prediction in fields where the competition succumbs to poor incentives, bad habits, or blind adherence to tradition—or because you
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
A superior analyst is one whose gains . . . are consistently greater than those of the market. Consistency is the crucial word here, since for any given short period of time . . . some people will do much better than the market and some will do much worse. Unfortunately, by this criterion, this author does not qualify as a superior analyst. There i
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
what good is a prediction if you aren’t willing to put money on it?
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Brynjolfsson and McAfee call the group personified by Nate Silver the “high-skilled” workers.
Cal Newport • Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World
Third, although the aggregate forecast is better than the typical individual’s forecast, it does not necessarily hold that it is better than the best individual’s forecast.