“You’re essentially indirectly competing against the smartest, most informationally savvy groups in the world.”
“You’re essentially indirectly competing against the smartest, most informationally savvy groups in the world.”
While Mr. Goldhaber said he wanted to remain hopeful, he was deeply concerned about whether the attention economy and a healthy democracy can coexist. Nuanced policy discussions, he said, will almost certainly get simplified into “meaningless slogans” in order to travel farther online, and politicians will continue to stake out more extreme positio... See more
nytimes.com • Opinion | Michael Goldhaber, the Cassandra of the Internet Age - The New York Times
In a world forged not by the toil of human hands but by the computations of machines, those of us who understand the algorithms hold the trump cards.
Nate Silver • On the Edge
[T]hey identified a small group of the foxiest forecasters—bright people with extremely wide-ranging interests and unusually expansive reading habits, but no particular relevant background—and weighted team forecasts toward their predictions. They destroyed the competition. […] They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top f... See more
Patrick Tanguay • Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
I came to realize that prediction in the era of Big Data was not going very well.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
“Who are our competitors?”
Tyler Cowen • Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World
“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
If you have strong analytical skills that might be applicable in a number of disciplines, it is very much worth considering the strength of the competition. It is often possible to make a profit by being pretty good at prediction in fields where the competition succumbs to poor incentives, bad habits, or blind adherence to tradition—or because you
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