Never compare a multiplicative, systemic, and fat-tailed risk to a non-multiplicative, idiosyncratic, and thin-tailed one.

What is rational is what allows the collective—entities meant to live for a long time—to survive. Not what is called “rational” in some unrigorous psychology or social science book.*4 In that sense, contrary to what psychologists and psycholophasters will tell you, some “overestimation” of tail risk is not irrational by any metric, as it is more th

An idea survives if it is a good risk manager, that is, not only doesn’t harm its holders, but favors their survival—this