Our mistake at GMI was not seeing the US liquidity as the current driving factor, when it is usually Global Total Liquidity that dominates over the full cycle. But now it is clear, and it is still The Everything Code at play...

There is no disconnect. It's just that the confluence of events Reverse Repo drained >TGA rebuild > Shutdown >... See more

Warsh will cut rates and do nothing else. He will get out of the way of Trump and Bessent who will run liquidity via the banks. Mirran will likely force through the full reduction in the eSLR too in order to goose the process.

Now, the US gov is shutdown...again. The Treasury hedged this by not drawing down the TGA at all after the last shutdown and in fact added more to it (more liquidity drain).

This is the current air pocket we are facing and it's causing brutal price action. No liquidity for our beloved crypto yet.

However, the signs are that this shutdown will get... See more

The rally in gold essentially sucked all marginal liquidity out of the system that would have flowed into BTC and SaaS. There was not enough liquidity to support all these assets, so the riskiest got hit. C'est la vie.