The story going into FOMC tomorrow: The Fed needs to lower rates because the US needs to roll over $8-9 trillion of debt in 2025.
Rolling over $8-9 trillion at 2025’s higher rates (e.g., 4-5% vs. 1-2% pre-2022) increases interest expenses, projected at $1.1 trillion for 2024
The story going into FOMC tomorrow: The Fed needs to lower rates because the US needs to roll over $8-9 trillion of debt in 2025. Rolling over $8-9 trillion at 2025’s higher rates (e.g., 4-5% vs. 1-2% pre-2022) increases interest expenses, projected at $1.1 trillion for 2024
The point of no return for countries is when interest rates are rising faster than their growth rates. At that stage, there is no hope of stabilizing the deficit. This is the situation many countries in the developed world now find themselves in.
Jonathan Tepper • Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything
9月FOMC---Don't fight the Fed
本次美联储以11票支持1票反对的比例通过降息50bp的政策决议，点阵图中表现出鹰派指引，对25年底利率预测的中位数为3.4%（市场预期在3%以下）
因为联储重回前瞻指引（或者说front the curve），所以有以下分析： https://t.co/Jl7kzp1hfX
If you have the common sense to understand that you can’t fight a debt crisis with more debt, and that the massive Baby Boom generation around the world will only spend less as they age, not more, then you will listen to what I have to say and prepare your investments, your business, and your family and kids for this inevitable and necessary crisis
... See moreHarry S. Dent Jr. • The Demographic Cliff
The public braces itself for the dark hour when the Fed can no longer ease and Congress can no longer borrow no matter how badly the economy founders.
Neil Howe • The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
While many focus on our rising interest costs to service our rising debt amounts I dont much care. We pay our interest to our citizens. Our existing debt service costs are mostly just a small symptom of the theft. The big thing to worry about is our primary deficit. That has grown far faster than our interest cost. Each year our primary deficit lay
... See moreAndy Constan on Trump Tariffs
Looking from this perspective at the U.S. deficit, by far not all of the credits borrowed by the government were financed by the Fed. According to preliminary and rough estimates, not 40 percent but “only” about 13 percent of U.S. expenditures are presently financed this way. Moreover, in discussing this problem it has to be taken into account that
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