The key point is this: even if you’re not convinced that Napoleon really mattered, you don’t and indeed can’t really know this. There is a real chance that Napoleon being born, rather than a different child from a different act of conception, fundamentally changed world history. So in terms of expected value, it remains the case that small acts can

Action—in the present—changes the future. A trip of ten thousand miles starts out with one step, not with a fantasy about travel.