In the absence of the ability to see the future, how can we position our portfolios for what lies ahead? I think much of the answer lies in understanding where the market stands in its cycle and what that implies for its future movements. As I wrote in The Most Important Thing, “we may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea

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So much of what matters in investing – this is true for a lot of things in life – is how you manage the psychology of uncertainty. The problem with looking back with hindsight is that nothing is uncertain. You think no one had anything to worry about, because most of what they were worrying about eventually came to pass.

“You should have been happy ... See more