ddress this question of when does the bubble pop, I would point out that valuations among big tech AI companies are high, but they’re not crazy high . The 24-month forward PE ratio of the Magnificent Seven is 27x. In the year 2000, at the height of the tech bubble, the top 10 stocks traded at 52x forward earnings. So I would say, yes, a bubble is... See more

But despite these concerns and constraints, we still see room for the AI theme to run, either because AI starts to deliver on its promise, or because bubbles take a long time to burst.

When I was jotting down notes for this piece I started listing out all the best observable reasons 2026 could be a bad year.

• the labor market is weakening


• AI capex can’t continue at this rate and is propping up the market


• stocks are expensive and multiples will contract


• private credit boogeyman


• inflation returns