Saved by Keely Adler
Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
These bedazzled methods fall under the category that Futurist Ilkka Tuomi labels as Epistemic Uncertainty , and the argument goes something like this:
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
“I’m unsure about the answer to this problem, but I can solve it by gathering more data. Once I gather more data related to the problem, I will be able to devise a solution.”
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
The Future Thinker’s Dilemma
Since all methods of predicting the future are flawed, Scenario Planning is a model for considering multiple realistic potential futures and assessing the risks and opportunities of each scenario. This can lead to better positioning today for an uncertain future.
Bob Gourley • Mental Models for Leadership in the Modern Age
Traditional strategy was built on a seductively simple premise: if you can predict the future, you can control the outcome. Find the insight, build the plan, execute.
Linear inputs, linear results. Certainty as a deliverable.
But the world no longer fits that model - if it ever did.