Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
Tyler Cowenmarginalrevolution.com
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Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
When Markets Beat
The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.
mason.gmu.eduWhy prediction markets aren’t popular - Works in Progress
worksinprogress.co
As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for Br... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
A preference for unbiased predictions is justified if all errors of prediction are treated alike, regardless of their direction. But there are situations in which one type of error is much worse than another. When a venture capitalist looks for “the next big thing,” the risk of missing the next Google or Facebook is far more important than the risk
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
The Promise of Prediction Markets | Science
science.org
Village Global's Venture Stories - A Primer On Prediction Markets With Robin Hanson on Stitcher
stitcher.com
Prediction markets work because traders can see all of the standard forecast data and aggregate it along with other idiosyncratic or dispersed information about the election. Traders can aggregate polling data or follow published poll aggregates, and they can add in any other information they think is relevant.