Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
Tyler Cowenmarginalrevolution.com
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Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
When Markets Beat
The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.
mason.gmu.eduHow to make real-money prediction markets on arbitrary topics (Outdated) — LessWrong
yutakalesswrong.com
The uptake and growth of prediction markets has been dampened by regulatory issues, but possible workarounds include a non-fiat token, or reputation-linked points system.
Sarah Constantin • Daily Notes
As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage. Anything less than an order of magnitude better will probably be perceived as a marginal improvement and will be hard to sell, especially in an already crowded market.
Peter Thiel, Blake Masters • Zero to One
Economics 101 teaches that trading is rational only when it makes both parties better off. A baseball team with two good shortstops but no pitching trades one of them to a team with plenty of good arms but a shortstop who’s batting .190. Or an investor who is getting ready to retire cashes out her stocks and trades them to another investor who is j
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Decision Markets for Policy Advice
The text discusses decision markets as innovative tools for improving policy decision-making by aggregating information about the expected consequences of various policy options, highlighting their advantages, challenges, and a case study on the Policy Analysis Market.
mason.gmu.edu