Who Is On the Other Side?

Often the other side is acting on bad information, and when people have bad information they make bad choices. There’s a great computer industry term for this: GIGO—Garbage In, Garbage Out.

above, most analytical exercises on “where the market is going” tend to result in firms reaching the same (obvious) conclusions as their competitors.

above, most analytical exercises on “where the market is going” tend to result in firms reaching the same (obvious) conclusions as their competitors.

Consider the system at the correct level. Remember the phrase “more is different.” The most prevalent trap is extrapolating the behavior of individual agents to gain a sense of system behavior.

each team has good local information but poor global information.