Saved by Matthew Giampetroni
Who Is On the Other Side?
I use the word arbitrage because we're not talking about different markets in different geographies. We're talking about different markets that exist in different people's minds. If I can fundamentally understand, and believe in, a market more clearly than any other investors then my equation can change in ways that give me an advantage.
Kyle Harrison • Markets, Markets, and Markets
Hardcore passive management enthusiasts overemphasize the overarching pull toward efficiency and mistake the general trend for the Gospel Truth. In so doing, they overlook valuable opportunities for return enhancement that are available to behavioral investors. Advocates for traditional active management are quick to point out the behavioral anomal
... See moreDaniel Crosby • The Behavioral Investor
But the very factor that causes market inefficiency -correlated beliefs -makes exploiting that inefficiency difficult. The desire to be part of the crowd is pow erful, and being apart from the crowd is scary for most
Michael J. Mauboussin • Understanding skill - a paradox
In a prediction market, it is relatively more difficult: maybe you are trading with someone who has natural exposure to a Russian invasion and is just looking for a hedge, but more likely your counterparty is, like, a guy who speaks Russian and is in dozens of Telegram groups waiting for just the right moment to trade against your resting order.
Tanner Hoke • Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke
Knowing about markets is knowing about other people’s weaknesses.