What’s Causing the Recent Spike in Global Temperatures?
No one can say exactly how hot the world can get before out-and-out disaster—the inundation of a populous country like Bangladesh, say, or the collapse of crucial ecosystems like coral reefs—becomes inevitable. Officially, the threshold of catastrophe is an average global temperature rise of 2°C (3.6°F). Virtually every nation signed on to this fig
... See moreElizabeth Kolbert • Under a White Sky
Overall, the predictions for the four cities were reasonably good, but were toward the lower end of Hansen’s range. His global temperature predictions are harder to evaluate because they articulated a plethora of scenarios that relied on different assumptions, but they were also somewhat too high.76 Even the most…
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Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
of succeeding, according to a recent study based on current emissions trends, are one in 20. If by some miracle we are able to limit warming to two degrees, we will only have to negotiate the extinction of the world’s tropical reefs, sea-level rise of several meters and the abandonment of the Persian Gulf. The climate scientist James Hansen has cal
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