Disinflation (which lasted from 1981 through 1997) is bad for commodities but is good for bonds and stocks. Deflation (which started in 1998) is good for bonds and bad for commodities—but is also bad for stocks.

Long Historical Cycles: Where are we in a 20- or 30-year inflation cycle? Are we transitioning from a disinflationary era into an inflationary one?

• Structural Indicators: Have demographic trends changed substantially? Is globalization giving way to regionalization? Are commodity investment patterns and energy transitions setting the stage for

The trends are faster in the case of weak commodity prices because the cycle will exhibit the same links, but in an accelerated manner. Producers, worried about covering their fixed costs, are incentivised to increase supply to try to get volume to overcome the price effect, further pressuring prices downward.

The theory I advance here is that