Inflationary_Cycles

Demographic Shifts: Changes in population size, age structure, and labor force participation rates influence wage dynamics, productivity, and total output.

Long Historical Cycles: Where are we in a 20- or 30-year inflation cycle? Are we transitioning from a disinflationary era into an inflationary one?

• Structural Indicators: Have demographic trends changed substantially? Is globalization giving way to regionalization? Are commodity investment patterns and energy transitions setting the stage for pers

Breaking of Old Norms: After decades of disinflation, markets and policymakers developed a set of beliefs, tools, and expectations fitted to low and stable inflation. If a structural shift occurs, these old mental models no longer apply, making it harder to control or predict rising inflation.

o Behavioral and Market Sentiment Changes: As inflation

Resurgence of Trade Barriers and Industrial Policy: As the world moves away from hyper-globalization—whether due to tariffs, geopolitical tensions, or security-of-supply considerations—costs could rise. The restructuring of supply chains raises input costs and reduces the deflationary tailwinds that globalization once provided.

Potential Winners and Losers: In an inflationary environment: o Losers: Long-duration bonds, high-growth tech companies reliant on cheap capital, and heavily indebted entities vulnerable to rising interest rates.

o Winners: Real assets like commodities, infrastructure, and companies with pricing power or exposure to supply chain restructuring.