We don’t have a hundred biases, we have the wrong model - Works in Progress
Jason Collinsworksinprogress.co
We don’t have a hundred biases, we have the wrong model - Works in Progress
As Tetlock explained, the human mind was bested by the animal in the maze study “because we are, deep down, deterministic thinkers with an aversion to probabilistic strategies that accept the inevitability of error.” The search for grand theories, for underlying systems and mechanisms of action in the world, in any other number of domains, from
... See more"Why does that question never get asked? Because it’s an open-ended question. And businesspeople, governments, and politicians aren’t looking to solve problems; they’re looking to win arguments. And the way you win an argument is by pretending that what should be an open-ended question with many possible right answers isn’t one.... Those are
... See morewhy the most rational course of action isn’t always trying to choose the best. And it turns out to be at the heart of, among other things, web design and clinical trials—two topics that normally aren’t mentioned in the same sentence.