Here's what he did instead—identify the handful of factors that could make or break the thesis.
He figured out the one or two factors that could make the horse succeed or fail — and, in this case, it was sales growth and making the cost advantage continue to work. Then, he took all of the historical data, quarter by quarter for every single plant, ... See more
If there's a good probability of catastrophe risk, it's an immediate no
The first step in Warren’s investing process is always to say, “What are the odds that this business could be subject to any kind of catastrophe risk that could make it just fail?” If there is any chance that any significant amount of his capital could be subject to catastrophe... See more