Treasury Markets: Policy Rates & Term Premia

Perhaps the most important confusion we want to clear up is that the level of risk premiums (called term premium in bond markets) has almost no predictive value for short, medium or even long term asset returns. The level doesn’t much matter at all for trading markets. What matters a great deal is drivers for changes in risk premium.

Said another wa

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From the early 1980s through the 2000s, interest rates were high and steadily heading down, which meant bond prices were steadily going up while also paying their holders a hefty income along the way. And quite usefully, their price action tended to be inversely correlated with equities; bond prices normally went up in recessions while stocks went

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Final Thoughts: Three Pillars Reiterated

I continue to view a three-pillar portfolio as an ideal framework for risk-managed investing.

A classic “60/40” stock and bond portfolio consists of two asset types that both prefer disinflation. Stocks generally prefer disinflationary growth, and bonds generally prefer disinflationary contraction. They’ve bot

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A central theme in Howell’s analysis is the assertion that liquidity flows have become crucial in understanding the modern financial landscape. In recent years, particularly since the global financial crisis, the nature of capital investment has evolved. Interest rates, which historically served as a critical indicator of capital allocation, have b... See more

In the Treasury market, following several consecutive days of deteriorating conditions, market participants reported an acute decline in market liquidity. A number of primary dealers found it especially difficult to make markets in off-the-run Treasury securities and reported that this segment of the market had ceased to function effectively. This

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