The last voice we greatly respect suggests that the US Treasury curve has a negative risk premium. He believes the risk free rate is better ascribed to a different pool of assets specifically government guaranteed mortgage bonds.

We can absolutely appreciate that idea while not fully agreeing. The implication is the treasury curve offers a lower

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The steeper yield curve is also being reinforced by a policy change the Fed began late last year that I still don’t think is getting enough attention. While their policy is supportive of the front end via Fed Funds rate cuts and the newly announced Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), it is doubly bad for the long end. First, that front-end... See more

Final Thoughts: Three Pillars Reiterated

I continue to view a three-pillar portfolio as an ideal framework for risk-managed investing.

A classic “60/40” stock and bond portfolio consists of two asset types that both prefer disinflation. Stocks generally prefer disinflationary growth, and bonds generally prefer disinflationary contraction. They’ve

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