Too Much Efficiency Makes Everything Worse: Overfitting and the Strong Version of Goodhart's Law
added by sari and · updated 16d ago
added by sari and · updated 16d ago
Britt Gage added 9mo ago
Britt Gage added 9mo ago
Increased efficiency can sometimes, counterintuitively, lead to worse outcomes. This is true almost everywhere. We will name this phenomenon the strong version of Goodhart's law. As one example, more efficient centralized tracking of student progress by standardized testing seems like such a good idea that well-intentioned laws manda
... See moresari added 2y ago
Goodhart's law states that, when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure 2 . Goodhart proposed this in the context of monetary policy, but it applies far more broadly. In the context of overfitting in machine learning, it describes how the proxy objective we optimize ceases to be a good measure of the object
... See moresari added 2y ago
Britt Gage added 9mo ago
The strong version of Goodhart's law underlies most of my personal fears around AI (expect a future blog post about my AI fears!). If there is one thing AI will enable, it is greater efficiency, on almost all tasks, over a very short time period. We are going to need to simultaneously deal with massive numbers of diverse unwanted side effects,
... See moresari added 2y ago