
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Talking about winning (even if we are identifying mistakes along the way to a win) is less painful than talking about losing, allowing new habits to be more easily trained. Identifying mistakes in hands I won reinforced the separation between outcomes and decision quality. These discussions also made me feel good about analyzing and questioning my
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Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it’s contagious
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
to view ourselves in a more realistic way, we need other people to fill in our blind spots.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Low-fat diets became the suited connectors of our eating habits.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
There are emotional and physiological signs of tilt. In poker, you can hear a poker player on tilt from several tables away. Every several hands, you hear a raised voice in an incredulous tone: “Seriously? Again?” or “I don’t know why I bother playing. I should just hand over all my money.” (Imagine the inflection of exasperation and a lot of swear
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If we want to improve in any game—as well as in any aspect of our lives—we have to learn from the results of our decisions. The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality plus luck.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
The key to a successful premortem is that everyone feels free to look for those reasons, and they are motivated to scour everything—personal experience, company experience, historical precedent, episodes of The Hills, sports analogies, etc.—to come up with ways a decision or plan can go bad, so the team can anticipate and account for them.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
No sober person thinks getting home safely after driving drunk reflects a good decision or good driving ability. Changing future decisions based on that lucky result is dangerous and unheard of (unless you are reasoning this out while drunk and obviously deluding yourself).
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
We can think of this broadly as an attempt to avoid the language of “no.” In the performance art of improvisation, the first advice is that when someone starts a scene, you should respond with “yes, and . . .” “Yes” means you are accepting the construct of the situation. “And” means you are adding to it. That’s an excellent guideline in any situati
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