![Preview of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/41oQkVLDeUL.jpg)
added by Harold T. Harper and · updated 4d ago
added by Harold T. Harper and · updated 4d ago
Third, ask for a temporary agreement to engage in truthseeking. If someone is off-loading emotion to us, we can ask them if they are just looking to vent or if they are looking for advice.
CHAPTER 2 Wanna Bet?
Zach Kirshner added 6mo ago
If you lose at a game of chess, it must be because there were better moves that you didn’t make or didn’t see.
Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends
Fake news isn’t meant to change minds. As we know, beliefs are hard to change. The potency of fake news is that it entrenches beliefs its intended audience already has, and then amplifies them.
Eli added 2mo ago
Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it’s contagious
Mertonian communism: more is more
Universalism: don’t shoot the message
In poker, the bulk of what goes on is watching. An experienced player will choose to play only about 20% of the hands they are dealt, forfeiting the other 80% of the hands before even getting past the first round of betting.
Fielding outcomes with the goal of promoting our self-narrative and doing it in an all-or-nothing fashion alters our ability to make smart bets about why the future unfolded in a particular way.