A few early signals that do not appear to correlate with actual potential (ultimate outcome): - Time to revenue - Total revenue - Revenue growth rate - Funding raised - Round price ...and yet these factors command significant attention... See more

Whenever you shift from the substance of a business to the financial question of whether or not it fits into a diversified hedging strategy, venture investing starts to look a lot like buying lottery tickets. And once you think that you’re playing the lottery, you’ve already psychologically prepared yourself to lose.

the power of imagination and optimism is an amazing and essential part of innovation. But over the years, we’ve become so enamored with the unicorn valuation as the goal, that we started valuing the wrong things and overlooking the fundamental physics of business.