Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

asymmetric information, a fancy phrase meaning someone knows something you don’t. In those cases, imitation makes sense because the information upgrade allows you to make better decisions.

You should be highly skeptical any time you see “the keys to success” or “formulas for winning.”

effect. Simulation is a tool that can help our learning process. Simulations are low cost, provide feedback, and have proved their value in other domains like military planning and pilot training.23

make good decisions, and encourage others to buy in to the decision.

First, our modern world has more interconnected systems than before. So we encounter these systems with greater frequency and, most likely, with greater consequence. Second, we still attempt to cure problems in complex systems with a naïve understanding of cause and effect.

we tend to observe financially successful companies, attach attributes (e.g., great leadership, visionary strategy, tight financial controls) to that success, and recommend that others embrace the attributes to achieve their own success.

Finally, the structure that emerges behaves like a higher-level system and has properties and characteristics that are distinct from those of the underlying agents themselves.

Coordinated behavior is at the core of many asymmetric outcomes, including favorable (best-selling books, venture capital) and unfavorable (national security, lending) outcomes. Be mindful of the level of diversity and recognize that state changes often come suddenly.

the illusion of superiority, which suggests people have an unrealistically positive view of themselves.

reductive bias, “a tendency for people to treat and interpret complex circumstances and topics as simpler than they really are, leading to misconception.”