
Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

First, situational power is most likely in novel settings, where there are no previous behavioral guidelines. Second, rules—which may emerge through interaction or be predetermined—can create a means to dominate and suppress others because people justify their behavior as only conforming to the rules. Third, when people are asked to play a certain
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it’s hard to make good decisions during emotional upheaval, it’s also hard to make good decisions in the absence of emotion.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Considering what motivates the decisions of others, especially when those decisions affect you, is also essential. Incentives matter. Take a negotiation course, because skilled negotiators are masters at figuring out what is important to the other party and arriving at mutually beneficial solutions. Even if you are not dealing directly with another
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to identify the nature of your problem and then consider how best to solve it.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
The statistical rate of success and failure must be reasonably stable over time for a reference class to be valid.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Raise your Awareness.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Negative feedback is a stabilizing factor, while positive feedback promotes change. But too much of either type of feedback can leave a system out of balance.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
markets are highly competitive, and money managers charge fees that diminish returns.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
want to understand the stock market, study it at the market level.