Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

To illustrate, research shows that weather forecasters tend to predict more accurately than financial analysts do, reflecting both the system and the feedback.4

Second, these agents interact with one another, and their interactions create structure—scientists often call this emergence.

Considering what motivates the decisions of others, especially when those decisions affect you, is also essential. Incentives matter. Take a negotiation course, because skilled negotiators are masters at figuring out what is important to the other party and arriving at mutually beneficial solutions. Even if you are not dealing directly with another

Our world represents one of many possible worlds, and small changes in initial conditions lead to a big difference in outcomes.

When cause and effect is clear, you can have more confidence in your forecast.

Experts do well with these tasks, but once the principles are clear and well defined, computers are cheaper and more reliable.

Heterogeneity means each agent has different and evolving decision rules that both reflect the environment and attempt to anticipate change in it.

to identify the nature of your problem and then consider how best to solve it.

Evaluate the mix of skill and luck in the system that you are analyzing.