They lied to us about Bayes' theorem
idealgas.substack.com
They lied to us about Bayes' theorem
The rule says that if you want to know the probability that the die is weighted, you have to combine two different terms. The first is the probability that the rolls you’ve seen could come from a weighted die and the second is the probability of the die being weighted in the first place.
Prior Belief + New Evidence Revised Belief.
Bayes’s rule as a way to update our belief in a particular hypothesis.