But people don't experience the economy through employment numbers or percentage point shifts in GDP. And when they are asked by pollsters about the state of the economy, they aren't reflecting on government statistics; they aren't even necessarily thinking about the present. Instead, what they’re doing is more like taking an inventory of economic ... See more

Two great memos from the past 24 hours both discuss the idea of certainty as well as the concept of psychological volatility overpowering market behaviors and realities. Always some signal to be noticed when thoughtful investors are thinking in similar frames of mind. https://t.co/CQM6jhgxya