We run into problems when our knowledge becomes of the map, rather than the actual underlying territory it describes.

Instead, we can try inverting the goal. It becomes, not getting rich, but avoiding being poor. Instead of trying to divine the decisions that will bring wealth, we first try to eliminate those behaviors that are guaranteed to erode

Socratic questioning

they would have to put in place a structure that was as fair as possible in order to guarantee the best possible outcome for themselves.5

The more you use them, the more you will be able to build the knowledge of indicators that can trigger the use of the most appropriate model.

Learn at least the basics of the realm you’re operating in, while acknowledging that you’re a Stranger, not a Lifer.

There are two ways to handle such a world: try to predict, or try to prepare. Prediction is tempting. For all of human history, seers and soothsayers have turned a comfortable trade. The problem is that nearly all studies of “expert” predictions in such complex real-world realms as the stock market, geopolitics, and global finance have proven again

We have to make HR decisions without being experts in human psychology, implement technology without having the faintest idea how to fix it if something goes wrong, or design products with an imperfect understanding of our customers. These decisions may be outside our circles, but they still have to get made.

What if I hadn’t been