The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts

What does this have to do with Hanlon’s Razor? The connection is this: When we see something we don’t like happen and which seems wrong, we assume it’s intentional. But it’s more likely that it’s completely unintentional. Assuming someone is doing wrong and doing it purposefully is like assuming Linda is more likely to be a bank teller and a femini

We have to make HR decisions without being experts in human psychology, implement technology without having the faintest idea how to fix it if something goes wrong, or design products with an imperfect understanding of our customers. These decisions may be outside our circles, but they still have to get made.

When we mistake the map for reality, we start to think we have all the answers. We create static rules or policies that deal with the map but forget that we exist in a constantly changing world.

To improve something, we need to understand why it is successful or not.

Ockham wrote that “a plurality is not to be posited without necessity”—essentially that we should prefer the simplest explanation with the fewest moving parts.2,3 They are easier to falsify, easier to understand, and generally more likely to be correct.

Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences, but the subsequent effects of those actions as well.

First principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility.

Very often, the second level of effects is not considered until it’s too late. This concept is often referred to as the “Law of Unintended Consequences” for this very reason.

understand how we think, how we update, how we learn, and how we can make better decisions.