Second-order thinking needs to evaluate the most likely effects and their most likely consequences,

Using the lenses of our mental models helps us illuminate these interconnections. The more lenses used on a given problem, the more of reality reveals itself. The more of reality we see, the more we understand. The more we understand, the more we know what to do.

Thought experiments can be defined as “devices of the imagination used to investigate the nature of things.”

The first flaw is perspective. We have a hard time seeing any system that we are in.

I believe in the discipline of mastering the best of what other people have figured out. Charlie Munger1

First principles are the boundaries that we have to work within in any given situation—so

Albert Einstein was a great user of the thought experiment because it is a way to logically carry out a test in one’s own head that would be very difficult or impossible to perform in real life.

Simplicity can increase efficiency With limited time and resources, it is not possible to track down every theory with a plausible explanation of a complex, uncertain event. Without the filter of Occam’s Razor, we are stuck chasing down dead ends. We waste time, resources, and energy. The great

Thus we need to avoid the slippery slope and the analysis paralysis it can lead to. Second-order thinking needs to evaluate the most likely effects and their most likely consequences, checking our understanding of what the typical results of our actions will be. If we worried about all possible effects of effects of our actions, we would likely nev