The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

Among social scientists, there has long been agreement that social perception creates its own reality. This bit of wisdom is encapsulated in the so-called “Thomas theorem,” coined by two sociologists in 1928: “If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.” We

While surveys show the willingness to use violence has risen about equally on both sides, a much larger share of the actual rise in violence has been by red-zone partisans, many of them affiliated with self-designated “militia” movements.

Blue zone residents increasingly “over-index” for CNN, Whole Foods, Target, Chipotle, Levi’s, Starbucks, NBA, REI, Honda, and Tesla. Red zoners do likewise for Fox News, Walmart, Dollar Tree, Chick-fil-A, Wrangler, Dunkin’ Donuts, NASCAR, Dollar Store, Bass Pro Shops, GMC, and Land Rover.

Today’s rising generation (Millennials) is taking the lead in insisting on more civic control, which almost guarantees that Americans will spend the rest of the Crisis era pulling these strong institutions back into their lives.

The Fourth Turning—for now, let’s call it the Millennial Crisis—began with the global market crash of 2008 and has thus far witnessed a shrinking middle class, the “MAGA” rise of Donald Trump, a global pandemic, and new fears of a great-power war.

it energizes the most extreme partisans today, from red-zoners who warn of a “Flight 93 election” (“charge the cockpit or you die”) to blue-zoners whose headlines declare that “Trump’s next coup has already begun” or “America is now in fascism’s legal phase.”

On the other hand, a civil war would become less likely if a new regeneracy redefines America’s partisan divide—in a way that either allows both sides to cooperate or enables one side to dominate politically.

One would be a global supply shock in energy, food, and other commodities, which would show up in shrinking real income for most households. Another would be a new pandemic, or an abrupt sanctions-driven de-globalization (accelerating a trend already initiated by the sanctions against Russia), or a crippling cyberattack on U.S. infrastructure, or a

For partisans on both sides, new policies enacted are not as important as keeping the pot boiling by galvanizing voter and donor enthusiasm. Indeed, achievements gained can be less helpful than achievements thwarted

Populism gives life to Michel Foucault’s celebrated reversal of the Clausewitz dictum: Politics is the pursuit of war by other means.