The end of incrementalism: how AI will reward maximalist start-ups

Many of the largest scale uses of AI to date have been at consumer-centric companies that have large data sets to train on (Google, Facebook, Uber, etc). Perhaps incumbents won due to a data advantage that is now going away as companies use the broader internet as an initial training set + are switching to models that work more robustly against sma... See more

Disruption Theory & risk-aversion don’t apply

Incumbents typically cede market space to startups wherever there’s new, unproven technology or a new, unproven market, especially in spaces where they can’t use past data to predict the future. But in AI, they’re rushing to embrace new technology and uncertain markets, spending historic amounts of ... See more

The Internet RevolutionI already explained what happened to newspapers when distribution erased local newspapers moats in the blink of an eye; as I suggested at the beginning, though, this was not an isolated incident but a sign of what was to come. Back in July I laid out how the acquisition of Dollar Shaving Club suggested the same process was ha... See more

• Increasing perversion of certain business models that are liable to be gamed or constrained by AI : We’re shifting from a world where data analysis required long cycles (analysts need lots of time to run queries, analyze, and then present findings in a way that people understand) to a new world of real-time optimization and insights (AI will mine

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A decade ago, I was only a couple of years into my venture career. I believed that growth and progress were synonymous – in an industry where scale was the ultimate target, platforms that achieved it were glorified. A decade later, I have learned that success is more nuanced, and we have to take accountability for the outcomes we encourage. New dom... See more