Timing the Liquidity Cycle: Long term 65-month cycle

The financial system's reliance on a "debt-refinancing loop" further highlights this cyclical dependency, where policymakers need to continually expand liquidity to prevent crises. It is a long-term swing in Global Liquidity that has been identified as having a 5-6 year period, specifically... See more

Global liquidity levels have stabilized following the Q4 dip. Four factors are underpinning them: (1) Improving Central Bank liquidity, due to the PBoC and ECB. Fed liquidity remains a cause for concern. (2) Collateral values (bonds) which are picking up, in part helped by (3) the loss of momentum in the US dollar. And finally (4), bond market... See more

total global liquidity has historically risen and

fallen in these predictable tides of around 5 years this cycle is determined by the average five to six year debt maturity profile that you've spoken about the lows of each cycle nearly always coincide as you've said with some kind of financial crisis and central banks always step in to provide more

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