The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking (Fully Revised Edition)

simple rules are more effective than complex ones because they shorten the amount of time needed to process information – one of the most time-consuming processes of all.

‘“early adopters’.” They were the opinion leaders in the communities, respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and then joined them. They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the “skeptical masses,” those who would never change anything before it had been tried out by the successful farmers.

What consequences will my decision have in 10 days? What consequences will it have in 10 months? And in 10 years?

And the more you know, the more secure you feel. But eventually you reach a tipping point; at some point you know too much. Theoret-ically you could spend the rest of your life reading car reviews. Here’s what to do: set yourself your own limits, e.g., three hours on Google, ask three friends, visit two car dealers.

This team model will help you to judge your team. Begin by defining the skills, expertise and resources that you think are important for carrying out the project. Note the skills that are absolutely necessary for the job. Distinguish between soft skills (e.g., loyalty, motivation, reliability) and hard skills (e.g., computer, business and knowledge

In double-loop learning you think about and question what you are doing, and try to break your own pattern, not simply by doing something differently, but by thinking about why you do it the way you do it. What are the objectives and values behind your actions? If you are fully aware of these, you may be able to change them.

Substitute? Substitute people, components, materials. • Combine? Combine with other functions or things. • Adapt? Adapt functions or visual appearance. • Modify? Modify the size, shape, texture or acoustics. • Put to other use? Other, new, combined uses. • Eliminate? Reduce, simplify, eliminate anything superfluous. • Reverse? Use conversely, inver

tipping point: if your expectations exceed a critical point, disappointment is inevitable, because whatever you are dreaming of becomes unattainable.

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex, the amount that we really know – that we can really grasp and understand – decreases all the time.

Evade responsibility. Those who feel overwhelmed by a conflict often delegate the decision – and thus also the confrontation – to another authority, usually a higher one.