The Data Detective

Curiosity breaks the relentless pattern.

So not only are journals predisposed to publish surprising results, researchers facing “publish or perish” incentives are more likely to submit surprising results that may not stand up to scrutiny.

our preconceptions are powerful things. We filter new information. If it accords with what we expect, we’ll be more likely to accept it.

anyone who is confident of the effectiveness of their algorithm should be happy to demonstrate that effectiveness in a fair and rigorous test.

This isn’t just about making money; it’s about making sure that citizens have access to accurate information about the world in which they live.

superforecasting is a matter of having an open-minded personality.

Much of the data visualization that bombards us today is decoration at best, and distraction or even disinformation at worst. The decorative function is surprisingly common, perhaps because the data visualization teams of many media organizations are part of the art departments. They are led by people whose skills and experience are not in statisti

For obvious reasons, this particular flavor of survivorship bias is called “publication bias.” Interesting findings are published; non-findings, or failures to replicate previous findings, face a higher publication hurdle.

the problem is not the algorithms, or the big datasets. The problem is a lack of scrutiny, transparency, and debate.