The Black Swan
what I’ve called the Black Swan problem—the impossibility of calculating the risks of consequential rare events and predicting their occurrence.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto Book 3)
Antifragile is the writer’s 4th book out of his 5 book series [Incerto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb... See more
Tatiana Figueiredo • Antifragile - Nassim Taleb
what’s going on. There are: a) epistemic arrogance and our corresponding future blindness; b) the Platonic notion of categories, or how people are fooled by reductions, particularly if they have an academic degree in an expert-free discipline; and, finally c) flawed tools of inference, particularly the Black Swan–free tools from Mediocristan.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2)
Black Swans hijack our brains, making us feel we “sort of” or “almost” predicted them, because they are retrospectively explainable.