The 12 Charts of Christmas

CATALYST

Michael Steinhardt, the first HF manager, says there are four steps in his process: what is the idea, where is consensus, what is your view, and what is the catalyst to get people to change their mind. In markets, catalysts tend to come from earnings (we won’t get until the end of next month), economic data, and geopolitical events. Let’s

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I use two measures here - the Bloomberg financial conditions index in blue, which takes the place of the GS measure that Bill Dudley built and took to the Fed, and the Chicago Fed national financial conditions index, inverted here, in green. Both measures suggest financial conditions are very easy, not just 2021 easy, but as easy as they have been

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