In the first half of 2025, annualized construction spending on manufacturing facilities is decreasing, not increasing, indicating that there is thus far no major investment into relocating supply chains to the United States in response to tariffs. Generally speaking, carrots (subsidies) have a bigger impulse to action than sticks (tariffs) because

Corporate tax revenues are plummeting partly because Congress has larded the corporate income tax with costly preferences and giveaways for corporations, and partly because American multinationals have become so successful at shifting income overseas. Hundreds of millions of dollars—money that might have gone to raising wages, or creating new