Tariff Tantrum Scenario

This strategy is already in motion:

DXY is falling

Rates are easing

Oil is down

Financial conditions are loosening

Liquidity proxies are turning up

Markets are panicking over tariffs...

But this is Mar-a-Lago mechanics at work. (FX & flows)

Looking ahead, the US is likely to see lower policy rates (circa 3%) and increased liquidity stimulus despite near-term inflation risks, as supply-side shocks from higher tariffs (taxes) slow growth and eventually curb price pressures. The Fed and Treasury are employing unconventional tools – including ‘Not-QE, QE’ (backdoor liquidity injections), ... See more