Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

he created a database containing hundreds of information sources—from the New York Times to obscure blogs—that are tagged by their ideological orientation, subject matter, and geographical origin, then wrote a program that selects what he should read next using criteria that emphasize diversity.

Leaders must be reasonably confident, and instill confidence in those they lead, because nothing can be accomplished without the belief that it can be. Decisiveness is another essential attribute. Leaders can’t ruminate endlessly. They need to size up the situation, make a decision, and move on. And leaders must deliver a vision—the goal that every

For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. It

the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was.

bait and switch: when faced with a hard question, we often surreptitiously replace it with an easy one.

Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs.

Sometimes forecasts are used to advance political agendas and galvanize action

aggregating the judgments of an equal number of people who know lots about lots of different things is most effective because the collective pool of information becomes much bigger.

So is reality clocklike or cloud-like?

Animated by a Big Idea, hedgehogs tell tight, simple, clear stories that grab and hold audiences.