Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs.

Here, the right test of skill would be whether a forecaster can do better than mindlessly predicting no change.

philosophic outlook, they tend to be: CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex NONDETERMINISTIC: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen In their abilities and thinking styles, they tend to be: ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED: Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected INTELLIGENT AND KNOWL

Leaders must be reasonably confident, and instill confidence in those they lead, because nothing can be accomplished without the belief that it can be. Decisiveness is another essential attribute. Leaders can’t ruminate endlessly. They need to size up the situation, make a decision, and move on. And leaders must deliver a vision—the goal that every

future accurately, but that’s often not the goal, or at least not the sole goal. Sometimes forecasts are meant to entertain.

Similarly, forecasts often rely on implicit understandings of key terms rather than explicit definitions

Foxes beat hedgehogs on both calibration and resolution.

The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.

“No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength,