Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

So is reality clocklike or cloud-like?

philosophic outlook, they tend to be: CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex NONDETERMINISTIC: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen In their abilities and thinking styles, they tend to be: ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED: Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected INTELLIGENT AND KNOWL

more than a 5% reduction in risk. It delivers certainty. Both 0% and 100% weigh far more heavily in our minds than the mathematical models of economists say they should.8 Again, this is not surprising if you think about the world in

System 1 comes first. It is fast and constantly running in the background. If a question is asked and you instantly know the answer, it sprang from System 1. System 2 is charged with interrogating that answer. Does it stand up to scrutiny? Is it backed by evidence?

Leaders must be reasonably confident, and instill confidence in those they lead, because nothing can be accomplished without the belief that it can be. Decisiveness is another essential attribute. Leaders can’t ruminate endlessly. They need to size up the situation, make a decision, and move on. And leaders must deliver a vision—the goal that every

“always predict no change” or “predict the recent rate of change.” Still,

aggregating the judgments of an equal number of people who know lots about lots of different things is most effective because the collective pool of information becomes much bigger.

sources as they could. When thinking, they often shifted mental gears, sprinkling their speech with transition markers such as “however,” “but,” “although,” and “on the other hand.

bait and switch: when faced with a hard question, we often surreptitiously replace it with an easy one.