Subscription podcasting is not a breakout success

Important context: With $100 million supposedly raised pre-launch, Luminary wasn’t just launching as a bootstrapped project, or a new business from an established player. It needed real traction from a cold start, quickly — and needs sustained adoption on a mass level — to justify its costly experiment.

And I still don’t think the “HBO for podcasts” or “Netflix for podcasts” is structurally something that most people urgently need or want, at least in the way it’s being presented today.

But podcasts remain relatively inexpensive to produce and unencumbered to distribute — and for almost everyone who listens, something they’ve only known as a free form of media.

Audio that feels more like books, TV series, or movies.

To date, Luminary has not revolutionized anything. It has never broken through the overall top 500 most downloaded iPhone apps in the US, according to App Annie, which tracks app stores. It

And even Spotify, one of the largest digital subscription businesses in the world — which divulged last week that it’s paying between around $140 million to $195 million to buy The Ringer — still makes its podcasts available for free in its app, not requiring a Premium subscription. That may change someday. But purchasing The Ringer — and Gimlet Me... See more

None on a Netflix scale, or even a Netflix-in-2005 scale.

This makes sense in television and film, where budgets can reach the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars; where expensive productions often look better and star a small handful of the best talent that are not “on staff” anywhere; and, crucially, where distribution has historically been controlled by paid gateways, like cable TV or streaming ser... See more

Audio that’s part of a broader membership program or fan club, whether informational or entertainment.

Audio that’s valuable as a professional or educational resource, which encourages users to get their employer to pay for it, or consider an educational expense.