Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
In the weeks leading up to the election, there had been a pattern: stock markets everywhere tanked on good news for Trump, and rose on good news for Clinton. Good news for Trump had proven to be bad news especially in emerging markets, like Mexico. The Jane Street trading plan wasn’t all that complicated. They’d get the voting results before everyo
... See moreMichael Lewis • Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon
Hardcore passive management enthusiasts overemphasize the overarching pull toward efficiency and mistake the general trend for the Gospel Truth. In so doing, they overlook valuable opportunities for return enhancement that are available to behavioral investors. Advocates for traditional active management are quick to point out the behavioral anomal
... See moreDaniel Crosby • The Behavioral Investor
Experts engaging in traditional peer review, providing their opinion on whether an experimental result would replicate, were right 58% of the time. A betting market in which the traders were the exact same experts and those experts had money on the line predicted correctly 71% of the time.