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Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
Four-and-a-half years ago, as the COVID epidemic hit its first, horrible spike, Jamais Cascio , a professional futurist, wrote a prescient and helpful post titled, “Facing the Age of Chaos.” He began with this simple insight: “This current moment of political mayhem, climate disasters, and global pandemic — and so much more — vividly demonstrates... See more
Micah L. Sifry • When History Overflows, Build a Lifeboat
These bedazzled methods fall under the category that Futurist Ilkka Tuomi labels as Epistemic Uncertainty , and the argument goes something like this:
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
“I’m unsure about the answer to this problem, but I can solve it by gathering more data. Once I gather more data related to the problem, I will be able to devise a solution.”
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more