hand, a synthetic theory that incorporates both of these (and some other) processes may provide us with a viable hypothesis that can be tested with data.

Our explicit focus is on agrarian societies, that is, those in which more than 50 percent of the population (and typically above 80–90 percent) is involved in agriculture.

Thus, we can use trends in higher education as an index of intraelite competition (Goldstone 1991:123).

According to Malthusian-Ricardian theory, the real wage is primarily determined by the population numbers in relation to the productive capacity.

Impoverished elites could also improve their incomes by attaching themselves to the retinues of powerful magnates.

for a new secular cycle to get going, the pressures of the general population on resources and of the elites on commoners must be substantially reduced from their precrisis levels.

What we need is a synthetic theory that encompasses both demographic mechanisms (with the associated economic consequences) and power relations (surplusextraction mechanisms).

There must also be some vulnerability of the state in the form of internal divisions and economic or political reverses. Otherwise, popular discontent is unvoiced, and popular opposition is simply suppressed.

It is curious that both sides in the Brenner debate almost entirely ignored the role of the state.