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Search engines’ carrying capacity
The Allee effect → The Network Effect Allee Threshold → Tipping Point Carrying capacity → Saturation
Andrew Chen • The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
The Allee effect → The Network Effect Allee Threshold → Tipping Point Carrying capacity → Saturation
Andrew Chen • The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
The Allee effect → The Network Effect Allee Threshold → Tipping Point Carrying capacity → Saturation
Andrew Chen • The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
But that can’t last forever, because there’s only so many resources—like the meerkat favorites, bugs and fruit—to support a finite population. As the population increases, eventually there is a natural limit based on the environment—often called a carrying capacity. For social animals like meerkats and goldfish, overpopulation looks like this, star
... See moreAndrew Chen • The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
Fortunately for Amazon, and perhaps critical to much of its growth over the years, perhaps the single most important asymptote was one we identified very early on... You don't even need to rewind to that time to remember what that factor is because I suspect it's the same asymptote governing e-commerce and many other related businesses today.
Eugene Wei • Invisible Asymptotes
As the population increases, eventually there is a natural limit based on the environment—often called a carrying capacity. For social animals like meerkats and goldfish, overpopulation looks like this, starting flat, then hitting a tipping point before growing quickly and then saturating and falling once again:
Andrew Chen • The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
“Overcrowding” dynamic within networks. More users and more content mean that you need to bring in features like search, algorithmic feeds, curation tools, and a plethora of other tools to manage this. If you don’t solve this problem, then users will start to leave, potentially preferring competitive products that are smaller but more curated.
Andrew Chen • The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects
There is a potentially important source of variance for all of this: we’re running out of internet data. That could mean that, very soon, the naive approach to pretraining larger language models on more scraped data could start hitting serious bottlenecks.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS - The Decade Ahead • I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs
Max Beauroyre added