Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation

Though Shell, BP, Hanover, and Harley-Davidson took very different approaches to developing capacity to work with mental models, their work involved developing skills in two broad categories: skills of reflection and skills of inquiry. Skills of reflection concern slowing down our own thinking processes so that we can become more aware of how we fo

Scenario planning is a narrative art, first and foremost. It homes in on the uncertainties that inevitably haunt a complex decision and forces the participants to imagine multiple versions of how that uncertain future might actually play out.

But the emphasis on successful prophecies misses the point. Most scenarios end up failing to predict future outcomes, but the very act of trying to imagine alternatives to the conventional view helps you perceive your options more clearly.

Transformative scenario planning is, then, a way for people to work with complex problematic situations that they want to transform but cannot transform unilaterally or directly.

Simple scenarios function in much the same way – they provide a narrative in which different trends and forces can unfold, move, interact and illustrate their relevance, as well as providing a space where tensions can surface usefully.

students would learn a series of techniques that they could then apply to their own lives and careers: how to build a full-spectrum map of a complex decision; how to design a scenario plan and a premortem; how to build a values model and Bad Events Table.