URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/cvoi4y/the_tenants_of_superforecast_accuracy_are/
reddit.comThe tenants of superforecast accuracy are principally validated for geopolitcal forecasting. Do they generalise to forecasting more broadly?
With practice, our estimates can get better. What distinguished Tetlock’s hedgehogs is that they were too stubborn to learn from their mistakes. Acknowledging the real-world uncertainty in their forecasts would require them to acknowledge to the imperfections in their theories about how the world was supposed to behave—the last thing that an ideolo
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Epstein looks at multi-decade research about forecasting and how specialists constantly can’t predict with any accuracy while generalists manage to do better. In short; people who are broadly curious, and interested in multiple fields, fare better and adjust their models more easily when proven wrong.
Patrick Tanguay • Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
This represents a strike against the IPCC’s forecasts, although we should consider one…
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Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
With Nuño Sempere - Superforecasting and Global Risk
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