URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/cvoi4y/the_tenants_of_superforecast_accuracy_are/
reddit.comThe tenants of superforecast accuracy are principally validated for geopolitcal forecasting. Do they generalise to forecasting more broadly?
Yes, but also:
If a topic is so epistemically murky that someone smart can come up with a new consideration that alters your key conclusions, then you shouldn’t update too strongly on the most recent compelling story you’ve heard.
Historically, the way we’ve dealt well with rapidly evolving... See more
Dwarkesh Patelx.comEpstein looks at multi-decade research about forecasting and how specialists constantly can’t predict with any accuracy while generalists manage to do better. In short; people who are broadly curious, and interested in multiple fields, fare better and adjust their models more easily when proven wrong.
Patrick Tanguay • Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
6 discussion topics on which David agrees with Taleb:(1) [p. 286] The sterilized randomness of games does not resemble randomness in real life; thinking it does constitutes the Ludic Fallacy (his neologism). This is exactly right, and mathematicians should pay attention. In my own list of 100 instances of chance in the real world, exactly 1 item is... See more