The tenants of superforecast accuracy are principally validated for geopolitcal forecasting. Do they generalise to forecasting more broadly?
reddit.com
The tenants of superforecast accuracy are principally validated for geopolitcal forecasting. Do they generalise to forecasting more broadly?
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
docs.google.com
The strength of a model is not what it can explain, but what it can’t, for only prohibitions constrain anticipation
Eliezer Yudkowsky • Rationality
Epistemic rationality: systematically improving the accuracy of your beliefs.