URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/cvoi4y/the_tenants_of_superforecast_accuracy_are/
reddit.comThe tenants of superforecast accuracy are principally validated for geopolitcal forecasting. Do they generalise to forecasting more broadly?
The litmus test for whether you are a competent forecaster is if more information makes your predictions better. If you’re screwing it up, you have some bad habits and attitudes, like Phil Tetlock’s political pundits did.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Epstein looks at multi-decade research about forecasting and how specialists constantly can’t predict with any accuracy while generalists manage to do better. In short; people who are broadly curious, and interested in multiple fields, fare better and adjust their models more easily when proven wrong.
Patrick Tanguay • Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
6 discussion topics on which David agrees with Taleb:(1) [p. 286] The sterilized randomness of games does not resemble randomness in real life; thinking it does constitutes the Ludic Fallacy (his neologism). This is exactly right, and mathematicians should pay attention. In my own list of 100 instances of chance in the real world, exactly 1 item is... See more