[OC] How reliable is the weather forecast across the US? (to within 3°F)

This is the process by which modern weather forecasts are made. These small changes, introduced intentionally in order to represent the inherent uncertainty in the quality of the observational data, turn the deterministic forecast into a probabilistic one. For instance, if your local weatherman tells you that there’s a 40 percent chance of rain tom

The NWS keeps two different sets of books: one that shows how well the computers are doing by themselves and another that accounts for how much value the humans are contributing. According to the agency’s statistics, humans improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts by about 25 percent over the computer guidance alone,31 and temperature foreca

This represents a strike against the IPCC’s forecasts, although we should consider one…

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But the time horizon for accurate forecasts is dauntingly small: the Good Judgment Project found that, while many forecasters were accurate within only about 150 days, its own super-forecasters weren’t confident beyond 400 days.